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The market “went sideways” for three consecutive sessions, which is assessed by some analysts as resistance to negativity. They compare the almost unchanged value of the capitalization of digital assets with a clear drop in stock indices of developed countries.
Arcane Research considers optimistic conclusions on the cryptocurrency market premature, suggesting paying attention to the anomalous backswording of Bitcoin futures.
Tracked since 2020, crypto derivatives on the CME exchange diverged from the spot price by 3.36%. These data, compiled on the basis of moving average prices of BTC futures for a period of a month, were below the previous minimum recorded at the end of July 2021.
Then the backsliding became a leading indicator of the future crypto winter of 2022. Starting in November 2021, Bitcoin sales started, which do not stop to this day. On the other hand, the Arcane Research moving average does not cover the period of the crypto winter of 2018, the calculations will start from November 2020, although cryptofutures have been traded on the CME since the end of 2017.
In any case, backsliding always indicates liquidity problems, without which the growth of any instrument is impossible. This trend is indirectly confirmed by the data on the inflow of ETH into the deposit contract.
Starting in November 2020, Ethereum developers have been recruiting PoS validators in advance on the Beacon Chain network, the merger with which will be provided in September will replace PoW mining. Dune Analytics analysts tracked weekly investments in a smart contract that fell to 12377 ETH last week.
As can be seen from the chart, this size of investors’ contribution to the ETH2 smart contract was the lowest in the entire history of observations. The decline in activity has been tracked since the beginning of May, when the DeFi crisis broke out.
Trust in decentralized platforms was first undermined by the collapse of Terra– a project from the top 10 rating. The creators built a crypto pyramid by issuing an unsecured stable UST token that has lost its peg to the dollar.
Investors were attracted by high rates for staking the stablecoin, in which large CeFi platforms and hedge funds invested, which lost Terra during the collapse, investors’ money and loans used for investments.
The decline in investment in Ethereum PoS mining indicates a skeptical attitude towards the future development of the ecosystem. The DeFi industry served as the basis for its development, now there is hope on the topic of NFT, but its implementation is possible on corporate networks and blockchains of competing projects.
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