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Experts explained what factors put pressure on cryptocurrencies and when positive changes in the market can be expected
Since the beginning of the year, the capitalization of digital currencies has decreased by 60% to $ 934 billion The coming “crypto winter” brought down the price of bitcoin by 70% from the historical maximum of $ 69 thousand.
The most affected tokens of metaverse and NFT projects, as well as the currencies of DeFi platforms – coins have lost in price from 70% to 85% of the value since the beginning of the year. The cryptocurrencies of exchanges fell the least: their quotes fell by 46% -57%.
Since mid-June, the bitcoin rate has fluctuated between $ 18 thousand-$ 22 thousand Due to the fall in quotations, some institutional investors and credit crypto platforms have already faced financial problems, and mining companies are forced to sell all the mined bitcoin to cover operating costs.
Is there potential for bitcoin to grow in the near term, or is there still a real reversal in the market to wait? Experts of “RBC-Crypto” described the current dynamics of prices in the cryptocurrency market and told when the turning point may occur.
Bitcoin price dynamics
The current week “pleases” traders with increased volatility, says Cryptorg CEO Andrey Podolyan. According to him, after Bitcoin went below $ 19 thousand on July 13, the panic was very strong.
If we consider the BTC chart from the point of view of technical analysis, then “the price is in a horizontal channel with a width of about $ 4 thousand,” Podolyan explained. The analyst added that approximately the same channel was formed in May – June, and as a result, the price greatly “failed”.
Now in the new channel there are already many touches of both the upper and lower edges, so with a high degree of probability the exit from the channel will occur in the next couple of weeks, the expert suggested. He said that on July 13, the price “pushed back” from the lower edge, that is, we can hope for continued growth to the upper edge.
The expert noted that there is a complete synchronization with the S&P 500 index, the dynamics of bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies now directly depends on its movement. A breakdown of the horizontal channel up will open the target to levels of about $ 26 thousand, and a breakdown down will open the target of $ 16 thousand, Podolyan said.
Influence of external factors
The most likely negative scenario, which implies the fall of the entire crypto market, and bitcoin – up to $ 15 thousand in the next month, said Roman Nekrasov, co-founder of the ENCRY Foundation.
According to him, cryptocurrencies are considered as one of the tools that hedge inflation risks. But on the other hand, digital assets are now strongly correlated with the stock market, and it will inevitably show a fall due to high inflation in the United States, despite all the efforts of the Fed to restrain this growth, the expert warned.
According to Nekrasov, most likely, at the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve, a decision will be made to raise the key rate again. This is already obvious, and on the eve of the meeting, capital will begin to withdraw from high-risk assets, the analyst is sure.
In August, bitcoin will drop to multi-year lows, but this does not cancel the forecast for the growth of bitcoin in the future of 3 years, bitcoin will return to growth in the autumn, Nekrasov added.
The expert suggested that in the second half of 2023, a new bullish cycle will begin on the eve of the next halving. And bitcoin will update new historical highs within 12 months after it – in the period from May 2024 to May 2025, Nekrasov is sure.
“In any case, the coming year will be difficult for the entire global economy, and the crypto market is no exception. Now crypto investors should be patient and valerian,” Nekrasov admitted.
Intermediate bottom
In the near future, we expect, mainly, a sideways movement with the risks of the next update of annual lows for BTC, ETH and some other capitalized assets, says Viktor Pershikov, a leading analyst at 8848 Invest.
Such dynamics is unlikely to lead to a significant drop in quotations, and new lows will allow market participants to enter the assets more profitably, the expert explained. He announced the expectation of a sharp recovery in prices after a possible drop in BTC to $ 17 thousand, and ETH – to $ 900.
Until the end of July, an intermediate bottom will be formed on the crypto market, which will enable cryptocurrencies to strengthen within 2-3 months, Pershikov is sure. But the expert does not advise to rush with the purchase of the CFA.
“It is likely that the current dynamics will continue until the end of the month, while growth in individual assets and in the market as a whole will begin in August,” the analyst believes..
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