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To determine the bottom of the current halving cycle, bitcoin bulls may only need a pair of simple moving averages (SMA).
The chief network analyst of Glassnode noted that the indicator called “Investor Tool” reached the buy zone on the fall. This indicator is a simple but effective metric of the bitcoin rate and indicates that buyers can get increased profits. Its creator Philip Swift was the founder of LookIntoBitcoin and tried to determine the overbought or oversold BTC/USD pair.
The metric uses a two-year SMA and a 5x multiplier and has historically performed well on both peaks and lows. The BTC/USD pair is below the two-year SMA for the first time since March 2020 and crossed the line about a week before the collapse of Terra (LUNA) caused BTC to fall to a 10-month low.
Former CEO of the bitMEX derivatives exchange Arthur Hayes believes that the level of $ 23,800 can mean a long-term lower limit of the BTC rate. Despite a significant number of predictions about the fall of BTC to $ 14,000, historical patterns can play an important role in maintaining bitcoin current or close to them levels.
Hayes noted that even the sale of 80,000 BTC by the non-profit organization Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) could strengthen the level of support:
“Usually a strong hand may be forced to go to sales due to unforeseen circumstances and LFG is such a seller. Throwing 80,000 BTC into the market is a real feat. After thinking about the nature of this bitcoin sale, I am even more convinced that the $25,000 to $27,000 range is the bottom of this cycle.”
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