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The editors of BeInCrypto have made a bitcoin forecast for June 2022. When analyzing the position of BTC, we took into account the impact of halving 2020 on the cryptocurrency
In this article:
- Typical June for Bitcoin
- June for bitcoin with an adjustment for halving
- What else is worth paying attention to
- Bitcoin forecast for June from members of the crypto community
- Instead of conclusions
Typical June for Bitcoin
June, as the history of btc movement shows, is not the best month for cryptocurrency. Over the past 11 years, in 4 cases, the coin has demonstrated negative dynamics of movement for the designated period of time. In percentage terms, the behavior of BTC in June is as follows:
- 36% – a drop.
- 64% – growth.
Bitcoin’s movement by month. Source: bitcoinmonthlyreturn.com
Bitcoin’s forecast for June 2022 will not be complete without an analysis of the possible impact of the 2020 halving on the cryptocurrency. Recall that a 2-fold decrease in the speed of BTC mining, as the history of the coin shows, has a positive effect on its value. At the same time, halvings, due to the correction of the influx of new bitcoins into the market, form cycles of cryptocurrency movement. Here’s how it works:
- Halvings take place on the Bitcoin network every 210 thousand mined blocks (approximately once every 4 years).
- By reducing the rate of BTC release, halvings are reducing the supply of cryptocurrency on the market. As a result, the shortage of bitcoins pushes the rate of the coin up.
- Sooner or later, the market is “saturated” with BTC. During such periods, the coin loses value. In the crypto community, periods of decline of BTC, which, being the flagship of the market, pulls other coins along with it, are called crypto winters.
- After the crypto winter, there comes a thaw – a period when buyers again awaken their appetite for BTC. Against the background of another halving, the supply of bitcoin is declining, which once again pushes the cryptocurrency rate up.
To make a bitcoin forecast for June 2022, you need to understand in which phase, relative to halving, the coin is located. To understand the issue, we will help analyze the behavior of the cryptocurrency, the movements of which, thanks to programmed halvings, are largely cyclical.
June for bitcoin with an adjustment for halving
In order to make a bitcoin forecast for June 2022, you need to determine which time period, relative to halving, fell on the month. Recall that the last decrease in the speed of BTC mining occurred on May 11, 2020. Accordingly, the period from June 1 to June 30, 2022 is the period from 751 to 780 days after halving. Consider how Bitcoin behaved in this period of time after the halvings of November 28, 2012 and July 9, 2016. First, let’s define the dates:
- Halving 2012. The period from 751 to 780 days fell between December 14, 2014 and January 17, 2015. The beginning of the segment fell on the 379th day after bitcoin updated the local maximum at the end of November 2013 near the level of $ 1100.
- Halving 2016. The period from 751 to 780 days fell on the period july 30, 2018 – August 28, 2018. The beginning of the segment was on the 228th day after updating the local maximum of bitcoin in December 2017 near the level of $ 20 thousand.
Here’s how Bitcoin behaved during the designated periods:
- In both cases, bitcoin demonstrated a negative dynamics of movement.
- After the completion of the time periods, the cryptocurrency moved in the sideways for several months.
Bitcoin’s behavior in the periods from 751 to 780 days after the halvings of 2012 and 2016. Chart: TradingView
Here’s what to look out for:
- June 1, 2022 – The 203rd day after BTC updated its local high at an altitude of $68,789 on November 10, 2021. Therefore, in 2022, the behavior of bitcoin is closer to the “scenario” of the coin’s movement after the 2016 halving. Accordingly, when forming a forecast, it is worth focusing on the movements of BTC from July 30, 2018 to August 28, 2018.
- In both cases, bitcoin went up only 9-10 months after the end of the period from 751 to 780 days after the halvings.
If the opinion that bitcoin is moving according to the “scenario” of 2018 is correct, we can assume that in June BTC will continue to lose in price. At the same time, it is possible that after the end of the period from 751 to 780 days after the halving of 2020, the coin will continue to fall. Earlier, the editors of BeInCrypto analyzed the features of the movement of BTC in cycles and came to the conclusion that bitcoin can reach a cyclical bottom in August 2022.
What else is worth paying attention to
Experts with whom the editors of BeInCrypto managed to talk believe that on the leadBitcoin in the summer of 2022 could be influenced by a variety of factors. For example, to push BTC to growth, according to our interlocutors, the movement of the Russian Federation along the path of legalization of mining is capable.
See also: Miners in the Russian Federation can be made self-employed in the summer – experts on the legalization of mining
At the same time, our interlocutors drew attention to the fact that in the summer of 2022, bitcoin risks being under pressure from the geopolitical agenda and the general mood of market participants. Including, in their opinion, the behavior of BTC can be negatively affected by the spread of monkeypox.
The launch of Ethereum 2.0 in the fall of 2022, while, according to our interlocutors, can provoke a new rally in the crypto market.
Bitcoin forecast for June from members of the crypto community
The opinions of the participants of the crypto community about what June will be like for bitcoin are divided. Many see the growth potential of cryptocurrency. At the same time, some crypto investors believe that even if bitcoin demonstrates a positive movement in June, in the future the coin will continue to correct.
Instead of conclusions
Analysis of the movement of BTC for similar periods of time after halvings, features of the position of the cryptocurrency and the behavior of the coin in the first month of summer allows us to give a negative forecast of bitcoin for June.
The digital asset may spend the summer of 2022 in search of the bottom. At the same time, the release of positive news, for example, the legalization of mining in the Russian Federation, according to experts, can push the cryptocurrency to short-term growth.
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