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The global economic crisis is on the cusp, and some believe that the $25,500 mark is not yet a market bottom for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Analysis and forecasts are prepared by KickEX analysts.
Bitcoin
The global economic crisis is on the way, and some believe that the $25,500 mark is not yet a market bottom for Bitcoin. The main direction of the market at the moment is set by the US stock market, the correlation >70-80% c S& P. Although there are positive factors – such as the growth of credit debt, which did not increase much during the month of May, which may be a breath of fresh air and the onset of a corrective movement.
As of 27.05.2022, Bitcoin is in the range of $ 30,600 – $ 28,600, which indicates a compression of volatility and an imminent breakdown of support or resistance levels.
We can see that the Put-Call ratio has reached almost the maximum mark for 2022, which may indicate the desire of the market to hedge further downside risk, which is not surprising. But if we consider the previous peak from February 2022, we can assume a corrective movement to at least the resistance levels of $ 30,600, $ 31,400.
After the case of the liquidity crisis and the collapse of Terra, there is no noticeable increase in the issue of stablecoins, which may indicate the uncertainty of market participants. It may also indicate prolonged accumulation in the narrow range in which the asset moves. In case of additional emission, we can consider a test of resistance levels.
The Fear and Greed Index tells us that we have reached a peak range where many users are leaving the market and can be a good indicator for bulls.
Summarizing the data above, we can conclude:
Scenario 1 (more likely) – movement to the levels of $30,600, $31,400
Scenario 2 (negative) – movement to the level of $25,500.
Ethereum
The transition to PoS has a number of reasons – they can be both positive and carry a negative connotation for the corrective movement of ETH.
Positive:
- new institutional money. The fee for staking per year is ~ 4%, which looks like a good profit in bonds;
- to withdraw funds from the staking (13M), it will take six months;
- reduced commission for transfers in the network;
- ETH emission is reduced. The emission of new ETH will be reduced to ~91%;
- and, where without it, after the transition, ETH will reduce the emission of the carbon footprint.
Negative:
- mining business, which is associated with risks, will lose its meaning. Thus, it will force you to sell 50% depreciated video cards and merge all the mined ETH;
- do not forget about the critical bugs of the new network, as well as the centralization of staking with the help of the LIDO market leader;
- and, most importantly, a recession in the U.S. stock market, which can greatly affect investor opinion and risk on assets.
Based on this, we can distinguish several scenarios for the movement of the market for the summer of 2022:
Scenario 1 (positive) – corrective movement to the levels of $2,300, $3,500;
Scenario 2 (negative) – the breakdown of the level of $ 1,700 and the movement to the level of $ 1,300 with a long flat movement between them.
#Market #analysis
