What stage of the bearish trend is Bitcoin at?

At the moment, the realized loss can be compared with the absolute lows of the price of Bitcoin in 2014 and 2018. Moreover, in some cases, these values have even been exceeded. Perhaps Bitcoin has reached the bottom or is very close to it.

The seven-day simple moving average hit its second highest yesterday. It was surpassed only by the fall in May 2021, when Bitcoin fell from the level of $ 59,000 to a minimum of $ 30,000 in just a couple of days. Despite the fact that the current drop is not so much more – from 40,000 to 26,700 dollars – the amount of realized loss is comparable.

Yesterday tweete analyst @therationalroot showed a graph of realized losses and gains in relation to market capitalization. He noted a horizontal line (black), around which the realized loss reached a maximum at the previous lows of the asset value. The ongoing capitulation is comparable to investor behavior since the end of the bear market in December 2018, the collapse of COVID-19 in March 2020, and the recession last May.

But the analyst believes that the current macroeconomic situation is different and there is a danger that the fall will continue. So he concludes by asking, “Will Bitcoin holders stand the test of time?”

Another Analyst @SwellCycle Presented on Twitter an analogy with the previous bear market lows of 2014 and 2018. It showed how the realized loss (expressed in BTC rather than US dollars) matched the bottom of Bitcoin’s price.

At the end of the bear market in 2014, one wave was enough to coincide with the macroeconomic bottom of Bitcoin. On the contrary, in 2018, only the second wave of realized losses led to the absolute bottom of the BTC price. In today’s market conditions, the first wave has just passed. He believes that on closer inspection, the situations of 2014 and 2018 could happen again.

In turn, the founder of the investment company HS Dent Investment Management Harry Dent gave his forecast for the fall of Bitcoin. He believes that Bitcoin will fall to $3,000 before it starts rising to $500,000. In his opinion, Bitcoin can become a new standard for the global financial system. Prices of $500,000 per 1 BTC it could reach by 2037, the next global market upswing.