By 2030, the number of active users of the Lightning Network (LN) bitcoin micropayment network may exceed 700 million. Analysts at Arcane Research came to such conclusions.
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Analysts noted that conventional metrics such as channel throughput do not reflect the true scale of network growth.
In September, El Salvador legalized Bitcoin, P2P platform Paxful integrated LN, and Twitter allowed content creators to accept digital gold donations. After that, the volume of payments in the Lightning Network almost doubled, although the bandwidth of the channels increased by only 26%, experts said.
In September, the number of LN users increased by 11,164% – to 9.7 million compared to 87,000 in August. Arcane Research believes that other countries with undeveloped banking systems or dollarized economies could follow the example of El Salvador. In this case, the growth of this indicator will become exponential.
“The total population of these countries is 850 million people, and 650 million of them are currently denied access to the banking system. In a scenario where nations representing 10% of this population adopt bitcoin by 2030, we will have another 50 million LN users by the end of the decade, ”the report says.
Arcane Research believes that this number could be even higher, as LN has the potential to revolutionize the content industry. If consumers pay for content using a micropayment network, the number of users could grow to 700 million by 2030.
“Between users of services related to the consumption of various content [видеоигры и потоковое мультимедиа], there are significant intersections. We decided to be conservative and pick the largest number – 1.1 billion gamers. […] 25% of the services they use require streaming money. […] Thus, the number of Lightning Network users will range from 25% to 100% of 1.1 billion. We took a simple approach and chose an average of about 700 million users by 2030, ”the report says.
Recall that Glassnode analysts also believed that Twitter and El Salvador accelerated the development of the Lightning Network.
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